Friday Afternoon Bowling Green Weather Update

Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today – Partly Cloudy – High 35° / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 25°

3pm 35°– 6pm 30˚ – 9pm 27˚ – 12am 26˚ – 3am 25˚ – 6am 25˚

Good afternoon! Temperatures are currently in the mid 30s across southern Kentucky. An upper-level trough is positioned over the eastern U.S., which will send snow chances our way on Saturday.

Ahead of this disturbance, we’ll experience warm air advection for the remainder of today and tonight. Southwesterly winds are raising our moisture parameters, causing the increasing cloud cover we’ve seen this afternoon.

12Z NAM 850mb temperature advections valid at midnight CST tonight (Courtesy: College of Dupage)

Patchy clouds will stick around overnight, and we’ll only see lows drop roughly ten degrees because of it.

Saturday – Mostly Cloudy; Scat’d PM Snow Showers, Windy – High 40° / Sat Night – Gradual Clearing; Colder – Low 10°

Saturday morning, surface low pressure will be positioned over the Great Lakes, with a cold front extending to the southwest. This boundary will drop south throughout the day, moving through Kentucky during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, skies will be mostly cloudy. Breezy southwesterly winds will reach speeds of 15 to 25 mph. These winds will help warm temps to around 40º by noon.

As the cold front advances south over the region, temperatures will fall, as surface winds turn northerly. This front will also produce enough lift in the atmosphere to trigger scattered snow showers as well. Precipitation will be brief, but could produce visibility issues, along with minor accumulations.

The following 4km NAM simulated radar model loops hourly from 10am to 6pm Saturday.  It favors a line of snow showers surging north to south during this time frame.

12Z 4km NAM simulated reflectivity valid from 10am to 6pm CST Saturday (Courtesy: College of Dupage)

The precipitation will only last a couple of hours.  Snowfall totals, if any, are expected to range from a dusting to half inch. Winds will be gusty while the snow is falling so be careful if you are out driving in the snow.  Again…there could be reduced visibility to go along with slick spots.

The snow is expected to come to an end by sunset, and temperatures will plummet as we head into Saturday night. Skies will become partly cloudy, allowing low temps to drop down to roughly 10º, with single digits possible in rural locations. Wind chill values could reach subzero readings. That’s some serious cold.


Sunday – Partly Cloudy; Cold – High 23° / Sun Night – Chance of Snow – Low 16°

Southern Kentucky will be positioned in the heart of a polar air mass by daybreak on Sunday. Skies will be party cloudy and temperatures will be downright cold with highs only reaching the lower 20s.

Another system will move through the area Sunday night, bringing another chance of snow. This system involves the phasing (or interaction between) a southern stream and a northern stream disturbance.

Model guidance struggles to handle these situations, and as a result, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with Sunday night’s precipitation chances. The latest from WPC paints a 40% probability of seeing at least 4″ of the white stuff across the southern tier of the region.  I’m not quite buying that… yet.

Snow probability of at least 4" Sunday night - Monday (via WPC)
Snow probability of at least 4″ Sunday night – Monday (via WPC)

With all of the cold air in place, this system is a bit different than the others we have monitored this winter. Instead of worrying about where the rain/snow line will set up, like we usually do, we’re more concerned with where the precipitation will fall.

As of this afternoon, it’s looking like the majority of the precipitation will stay to our south, with southern Kentucky having the potential to see up to an inch or two of snow. This is subject to change.  It’ll be important to keep an eye on the forecast this weekend, as a small change in the storm track could mean higher snow totals for our area.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. Stay warm this weekend and be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates.