Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Today 11/3 – Partly Cloudy – High 65° / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 44°
6 AM – 36° – 9 AM -47° – 12 PM – 61° – 3 PM – 65° – 6 PM – 53°
Upper level ridging will begin to build across the region. This will help warm temperatures back up for the forecast period. Ridging aloft will also bring some fairly dry air aloft. This will keep cloud cover to a minimum, especially during the afternoon hours after morning cloudiness departs.
There is fairly good model consensus regarding the high temperature forecast. Models indicate a range of highs from 60°-68°, with the model average coming to around 64°. We’ll bump that up to 65° due to decreasing cloud cover in the afternoon hours, as well as a south wind on the order of 10 mph. Sounds like a good forecast to me, you better enjoy it…
The nice weather should continue into the overnight hours as partly cloudy conditions remain, with lows in the mid 40s, around 44°. Southerly winds will continue.
Tuesday 11/4 – Mostly Cloudy – High 67° / Tue Night – Rainy – Low 53°
A trough will develop over the southwestern US, as well as over the northern plains. This will place us in a split flow type pattern aloft as the sub-tropical jet and polar jet connect. It looks like we’ll be more firmly established in the sub-tropical jet. This means our winds will be out of the southwest aloft, which will help usher in some warmer temperatures.
An influx of moisture will also be noted, which could lead to some increased cloudiness. Highs will be around 67°. Winds will remain out of the south around 10 mph. Below is a depiction of the split flow pattern.
A large are of surface low pressure will form well to the north of the region in southern Canada. This low pressure system will drape a cold front to the west of the region, providing enough lift to produce widespread showers. These showers will push east, along with the cold front, during the overnight hours.
This will be the beginning of quite a wet forecast period. Lows will be around 53°, with calm winds. Rainfall amounts on Tuesday night could total around 0.25″, depending on the timing of the rain.
Wednesday 11/5 – Rainy – High 57° / Wed Night – Rainy – Low 47°
Rain will once again be a good bet on Wednesday. That is the easy part of the forecast. The cold front moving east, as well as a secondary, weaker area of low pressure develops to the south of the region, will provide enough lift and moisture for a rainy Wednesday.
The hard part of the forecast is the high temperature. Timing differences of the cold front, as well as frontal structure with the low pressure to the south has created a 15° temperature spread for high temperatures on Wednesday. We’ll try to split the difference at 57° and hope the models can resolve their differences in the next few days. Winds should remain rather calm throughout the day. Below is a graph depicting forecast temperatures over the forecast period, notice the lack of confidence, or spread in the data, on Wednesday.
Rainy conditions will continue during the evening and overnight hours. It looks like the backside of the precipitation shield could move through the region around midnight, marking the end of the rain. Lows will fall to around 47°. Rainfall totals for Wednesday and Wednesday night could total around 0.75″-1″ of rain. Just a good ole soaking rain in the forecast.