Good Monday morning, folks, and welcome to wxornotBG! The weekend always goes by too fast, but hopefully it was a good one for you. The quiet weather was nice, but now we will have an active weather pattern to start the new work week.
Rainy and Breezy Monday
Clouds were on the increase yesterday as our next cold front approached. Now with the front knocking on our door, we can expect a damp, windy, and gloomy day.
The best coverage and intensity for rainfall has been well north of our area (near the Ohio River), but a strong upper-level atmospheric disturbance will help drive rainy and windy conditions for our area as well. Rain showers will invade WABBLES during the morning hours, and continue through the afternoon and evening hours.
If the rain wasn’t enough to make for a bad hair day, then you’ll have to battle the wind as well. A low-level atmospheric river of strong winds has been created in response to the upper-level atmospheric disturbance. Breezy south winds will be flowing 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible. These strong winds will help drag in warm, moist air, to help fuel this cold front and prolong steady rain showers.
The warm air advection will help warm up our temperatures to above normal for early December as well. Expect highs this afternoon to be around 66ºF, which is 16ºF warmer than normal.
Guidance suggests that the cold front will pass over WABBLES tonight. When doing so, the winds will turn from south-southwest to northwest. This wind shift will now bring in cold air, thus allowing temperatures to fall to 35ºF.
Let’s be honest, it may be December, but I’m not ready for more sn*w. Are you? Alright fine, let’s talk about snow. So the current thinking is that the rain showers will transition over to snow on Tuesday. But there are a lot of lingering questions. Here’s a snippet from NWS Louisville with their thinking for Tuesday:
Rain showers will be seen Monday evening with the cold front crossing the region during the overnight period. We’ll see about a 15-20 degree drop in temps overnight with temperatures generally remaining in the lower-mid 30s during the day on Tuesday. … However, the marginal surface temps, warm ground, and lingering questions about precipitation intensity result in a fair amount of uncertainty regarding accumulations.
The better chance at accumulations would be later in the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday evening where surface temps would dip further into the 20s resulting in better accumulation.
The models do seem to agree fairly well that the better chance for snow will be Tuesday evening. BUT…. there is still a large amount of disagreement between the models on placement of snow bands as seen below.
As we get more model runs into today, the models should get a better handle on the system and we can gain better confidence. Below is another snippet from NWS Louisville discussing impacts:
Impacts during the day would look to be limited given the marginal surface air temperature and ground temperatures. However, there is the potential for higher impacts Tuesday evening as temperatures grow colder. …
Therefore, forecast confidence remains generally around the medium level as of this writing.
There are a lot of factors still unknown that can swing the forecast, so we will keep you up to date as more data comes in today.
One Thing is Certain…
After the busy day we have on Tuesday, one thing is for certain…. and that is that calm and peaceful weather will return to WABBLES. Conditions should calm down overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. High pressure returns, along with the sunshine.
While it may be sunny and calm, the temperatures will be well below normal. Expect afternoon highs to only reach 40ºF, a chilly 10ºF below normal. Conditions remain calm heading into Wednesday night, but a heavier coat will be needed. Low temperatures are forecast to be around 25ºF.
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Monday! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.