An area of low pressure north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola is getting very close to tropical storm criteria. Could this small area of low pressure become Cristobal, the next name for a tropical storm in the Atlantic? According to the National Hurricane Center, the area of low pressure has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. The low pressure system also has an 80% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
The National Hurricane Center’s discussion about the future of the low pressure system should get those folks vacationing in the central and southern Bahamas a bit concerned. Here’s the discussion:
“The overall organization of the showers and thunderstorms has been
increasing today, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola
could limit development tonight. Conditions for development are
expected to be more conducive when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Gusty winds and heavy
rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in the southeastern
and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance,
since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with
little advance notice.“
So where will the prospective Tropical Storm Cristobal go? Basically, the models, and myself have no idea. With that being said, a majority of the models put the storm out to sea. However, a few models bring it close enough to the eastern US to put me on edge. It will definitely be wait and see for the meantime.
For now, I’ll leave you with a few tools for tracking Invest 96L, the name of the low pressure system that may soon become Cristobal.